SUMMARY: This week on Radio Ecoshock 3 interviews with scientists on the cutting edge of climate change. From the UK, Chris Boulton hunts for signs of abrupt ecological shifts. From Norway, Hans Weihe explores the changing Arctic. But first, we look into whether air pollution is shading the world from serious heating, with Bjorn Stevens of the Max Planck Institute in Germany.
Download or listen to this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)
Or listen on Soundcloud right now!
IS IT SAFE TO CLEAN UP AIR POLLUTION? DR. BJORN STEVENS
We know that industrial pollution in the atmosphere actually hides some of the global warming expected from our emissions. But how much? Respected scientists like James Hansen have suggested that a degree Celsius - or more - is "in the pipeline" due to the pollution, called "aerosols" in science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a wide range of possible impacts of aerosols, but they recently dropped their lowest estimates.
The whole subject is one of the most difficult in science, because it involves swirls of widely varying materials in the atmosphere, unevenly distributed around the globe. The aerosols also interact with one of the last frontiers of science, the activity of clouds.
Our guest Professor Bjorn Stevens is a director at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology where he leads the Atmosphere in the Earth System Department. He is also a professor at the University of Hamburg. Dr. Stevens was previously at the University of California in Los Angeles. Although born in Germany, he is an American, educated in the United States. Bjorn Stevens is one of the world authorities on clouds and climate change. He's the lead author of a new paper on the limits of aerosol impacts on global warming - and that paper has already stirred up controversy, including among climate sceptics.
The public knows little about this scientific discussion, except when it's called "global dimming". I've run a feature about it by the BBC. I was also impressed by studies of what was first called the "Asian Brown Cloud", but later the "Atmospheric Brown Cloud". Below you will find a link to my 2006 program on the subject, featuring the work of V. Ramanathan of the Scripps Institute.
For example, simple studies of how long it takes a pan of water to evaporate showed sunlight reaching the surface of China has dropped by at least 10% over the last couple of decades. Consider the implications for agriculture. Another huge big brown cloud forms over Northern India for part of every year, blocking out sunlight. The cause is mostly soot from inefficient indoor cooking fires!
In that blog I wrote:
"Ramanathan told science writer Regina Nuzzo,
'By sheer, dumb luck, we are adding particles that are trapping sunlight and cooling the planet.'
He compares it to a mask - and if that pollution is removed, the climate may suddenly rise to the real levels of warming gases in the atmosphere. Ramanathan said:
'Many of us, including myself, are concerned we could see a huge acceleration of global warming if we unmask the beast.'"
GLOBAL DIMMING RESOURCES:
Find a text summaryof the BBC "Global Dimming" documentary here. Watch the documentary here.
The Radio Ecoshock special on global dimming (20 minutes, 18 MB) is available as a free .mp3 here. A transcript of Radio Ecoshock special on global dimming, (broadcast Sept 8, 2006) is here.
BUT IS GLOBAL DIMMING AN IMPORTANT PROBLEM NOW?
But now in 2015 we ask: is global dimming an appropriate label for the totality of human pollution that may be shading the Earth from the real carbon blanket we've put up there? If I understood him correctly, Bjorn Stevens says "no" because global dimming was really about local or regional conditions of pollution (say over India or China) rather than a global effect.
In fact, Stevens began to argue with other scientists who claimed a large amount of warming was being masked. That argument became his new paper "Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing" published in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society in June 2015.
As I understand it (and this is not easy science) - Stevens compared a known period of atmospheric pollution, in the first half of the 20th century, to a more recent period, to calculate the probably effect on global warming. The general analog for the way pollution operates in the early period was sulfur, which came from burning oil, but even more from burning coal. Sulfur pollution in that period from 1910 to 1950 was pretty well known and measured.
This is the big picture method of research. In other words, Stevens doesn't try to add up all the many sources of aerosol pollution (as Dr. James Hansen and others have done) - but instead looks at totals and comparative temperatures.
The data shows that aerosol pollution is not as big a factor in hiding global warming as previously thought. That's good news - because it means there is less danger in cleaning up pollution, say in the skies above China. We don't really have to worry that a sudden jump of temperature will occur, according to Stevens.
In fact, and this is the key, Stevens tell us the worry about aerosol dimming is a problem of the past, of the 20th century. In this century, the effects of carbon dioxide to drive warming has far out-stripped the lesser masking power of pollution. It's yesterday's worry, he says.
Climate skeptics and critics like Judith Curry have jumped on Stevens paper to say "see, there's nothing to worry about, it's already as bad as it's going to get." Stevens was forced to respond to distortion of his research by right-wing media.
I think it is be a mistake to use this to discount the concern about warming "still in the pipeline" as James Hansen puts it. There are other factors which can mask or temporarily hide the true impacts of carbon pollution, like absorption by the world's oceans. That ocean mix down is probably a time limited factor, and the heat energy absorbed WILL come back out at some point.
As for "climate sensitivity" (which we talk about in the Steven interview) - we don't yet know for sure how much climate reacts to carbon. But so far, all the surprises in sensitivity have been worse than we thought, not better.
I recommend listening to this Stevens interview as one of the more serious interviews I've done, with one of the world's more prominent scientists.
You can listen or download this 26 minute talk with Dr. Bjorn Stevens in either CD Quality or Lo-Fi.
Use this tiny URL if you want to Tweet it out to others: http://tinyurl.com/onsddnl
SEARCHING FOR SIGNS OF ABRUPT ECOLOGICAL SHIFT - DR. CHRIS BOULTON
When a scientist starts talking about "abrupt ecosystem change" - as the title of a new paper does - that really gets my attention. This time it's the ocean, and specifically the North Pacific Ocean - which borders some of the mostly heavily populated places on Earth.
The title is "Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change". From the College of Life and Environmental Sciences, at the University of Exeter in the UK, we've reached the lead author, Dr. Chris A. Boulton.
Going back to the beginning of things, Chris Boulton and his research partner Tim Lenton partly based their investigation on a 2008 paper that flew under the radar of most people. That was published in PNAS in 2008 by Vasilis Dakos et al. The title says it all: "Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change." The abstract for that paper is here, and you can read the full text here.
Dr. Chris Boulton, University of Exeter.
Dakos and the other scientists reviewed a trend that is commonplace in physics and many other fields: systems can appear to reach an equilibrium just before they break into a significant change of state. The Dakos team found the same pattern in Earth's history, where they say:
"...periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a
characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift."
Can we predict when such a critical threshhold is reached (and when it will tip)? That would be very useful for us now. Or can we only see a tipping point after it has happened? Have we already "tipped" and we don't know it yet?
These are the sorts of questions the Boulton and Lenton's research set out to answer. They choose the climate of the North Pacific ocean - partly because long-term sea surface temperature measurements are available, and partly because the North Pacific is subject to shifts - called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO.
Talking about all this in the interview covered a wide range of subjects, including the mysterious presence of "the blob" of hotter water parked off the Pacific coast of North America for the past couple of years - and how that fits into the larger ocean patterns in the Pacific Ocean generally. We care, because these ocean conditions often drive weather formations over huge areas of the continents.
Wikipedia offers this definition of the PDO: "The PDO is detected as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, north of 20° N." Chris Boulton gives us more details. It's interesting to note that this state of the North Pacific, which may last a decade or more, was first named by scientist Steven R. Hare, who was studying salmon runs in 1997. The productivity of salmon runs varied with the state of the North Pacific. You can see this knowledge is relatively recent.
But what if the North Pacific ocean changes were becoming less frequent, and lasted longer in each state? Could that be a slowing down that would indicate we are reaching a climate tipping point, as Vasilis Dakos wrote about?
It would be a fantastic (but awful) scoop to say Boulton and Lenton discovered the smoking gun, and yes the climate is about to experience an abrupt ecosystem change. However, in this case, an exhaustive analysis failed to prove a tipping point has been triggered. Boulton hopes to explore other cases, to find some signals that would provide advance warning of an abrupt change. It's important science in my opinion.
In the meantime, the team did find that marine systems are prone to "higher amplitude, lower frequency" events. Think about this like the stock market. The market could go along fairly calmly, perhaps slowly rising or falling, but now and then it crashes. It appears natural systems, and climate change in particular, can operate the same way.
That's a scary thought for me. What if we go into another so-called "hiatus" of global warming, and relax our efforts to reduce carbon emissions - not realizing this really is "the calm before the storm". The apparent plateau is really a warning of an imminent large system change. I doubt human societies can digest this possibility, and be prepared to act on climate change, even when the weather extremes give us a break. Think that over. I will.
You can listen to/download this Radio Ecoshock 21 minute interview with Chris Boulton in CD Quality or Lo-Fi.
LISTENING TO THE ARCTIC: DR. HANS WEIHE
Scientists measure disappearing Arctic sea ice from space. Our next guest travels there, to learn from the land and local culture. Hans Joergen Wallin Weihe is a Professor at Lillehammer University College in Norway.
Dr. Hans Joergen Wallin Weihe
Dr. Weihe has travelled and researched in most parts of the Arctic, including not just his native Scandinavia, but also Greenland, northern Canada, and Siberia. He spent enough time learning from aboriginal people in Greenland that he was able to compile a a study of aboriginal languages from the Canadian north, Greenland, and Scandinavia.
Aboriginal knowledge of "what has always been known" (as they say) is a neglected source of climate study, Weihe says. For example, we can tell from the many terms used for "ice" the ways that ice has changed in these days of climate warming. In his work "Snow and Ice", Weihe writes:
"Among the differences and changes noted by Inuit hunters are thinner sea ice, melting from underneath the sea ice, changes in currents, changes in wind directions, changes in the way the ice breaks up, changes in moving ice, changes in cracks, changes in crystallizaton changes in consistency of sea water, changes in animal behaviour and concentrations. Still, as pointed out by many hunters, they had dogs in the old days and the dogs had senses that supplemented human senses detecting thin ice, animals and so on."
You can read a .pdf of the essay "Snow and Ice" in English here.
Listen to or download this 10 minute chat with Hans Weihe here.
OVER AND OUT
That's it for Radio Ecoshock. I appreciate you taking the time to work through this blog, and the program. I know it's not pre-digested like so much of the media today. I find most modern media is aimed at tweaking thoughts and emotions already in our minds, rather than creating new ones.
I'm also grateful for the people who Tweet and Facebook about each week's show. To be honest, it takes everything I've got to find the best guests, arrange the interviews, put together the program and distribute it to various networks and radio stations. After that, I have not enough time or energy to really promote as I should. Fortunately, many listeners have taken this on, spreading the word about Radio Ecoshock shows to thousands more people all over the world.
My thanks also to those folks who made donations or signed up for our $10-a-month Radio Ecoshock support team. You keep this going.
Join us next week as the world turns. I'm Alex Smith, saying thank you for listening.
By the way, I wrote the background music you hear in this week's show.
Showing posts with label oceanography. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oceanography. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
RUNNING OUT OF FUTURE
SUMMARY: Super scientist Kevin Trenberth on why oceans now hottest in recorded history, why that can make Europe colder. Stephen Leahy: we bankrupt water supplies with consumer purchases. Rob Aldrich on a generation with Nature Deficit Disorder. Radio Ecoshock 141203
Welcome back to Radio Ecoshock. Not a week goes by without a new, strange, and dangerous threat emerging out of the shadowy future. We start with the biggest under-reported story: unseen by land mammals, the world's oceans are heating up. That determines the future and the new coastlines for hundreds of years. We'll talk with Dr. Kevin Trenberth, one of the world's top climate scientists.
Did you know great rivers of fresh water are travelling around the world, hidden in the consumer products we buy? Environmental journalist Stephen Leahy explains his new book "Your Water Footprint".
Then Rob Aldrich says "yes, there is a growing health crisis in the Western world, and the cause is Nature Deficit Disorder".
[Sigh] It's Radio Ecoshock.
Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)
Or listen on Soundcloud right now!
KEVIN TRENBERTH ON THE HOT OCEAN
Not sure about global warming? Here's a little fact that should grab your attention. According to scientists at the University of Hawaii, the world's oceans are hotter than they have ever been in recorded history. It's a dangerous trend, and you and I may have triggered that fever.
We have one of the world's top climate scientists joining us now. Dr. Kevin Trenberth is a transplanted New Zealander. He's now the Distinguished Senior Scientist in the Climate Analysis Section, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder Colorado. His advice and science is cited all over the world.
Dr. Kevin Trenberth
According to news reports, water off New England is warming faster than almost anywhere on earth. Why is that, and what does it mean? We find an interesting connection between colder weather in Europe in recent years, and a warmer North Atlantic ocean.
He says the hotter North Atlantic may be partly a decadal rhythm. Then he adds:
"We think part of the reason the North Atlantic is as hot as it is actually stems back to some of the actions in the Pacific Ocean, through what atmospheric scientists call "Tally connections" - large waves in the atmosphere that have been associated actually with cooler conditions in Europe at that time. So the main cold outbreaks that have occurred in recent years have been in Europe rather than over the North Atlantic. As a result, the North Atlantic has been more benign and the temperatures have warmed up there."
In his answer Dr. Trenberth mentions "Talley Connections" named after Professor Lynne D. Talley, Scripps Institution. Dr. Talley is an oceanographer and co-editor of a textbook and scientific reference used by millions.
EL NINO - YES
Even though scientists have not declared a full El Nino for 2014, Trenberth says:
"There's a developing El Nino and I think we are actually in El Nino conditions, and that has altered conditions throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, and is also having an influence over the West Coast of North America."
He also connects this developing El Nino for the very active hurricane season (with major and even record storms) hitting places in the Eastern Pacific (including Japan).
SEA LEVEL RISE IS THE BEST INDICATOR OF GLOBAL WARMING
One way we can be sure ocean temperatures are rising, beyond the wide-spread network of ocean bouys, is the steadily rising sea level. Since 1992, we have satellites accurately measuring sea level. It's going up at 3.2 millimeters a year, now. That's expected to increase as warming gathers strength. For non-metric people, that adds up to a rate of a little over a foot per century - caused by two processes: ice melt from land-based glaciers like Greenland or West Antarctica; and heating of the oceans (heated water expands).
He says that sea level rise is a better indicator of climate change than measuring just global atmospheric temperatures. Other new science suggests we have underestimated warming in the oceans.
IS THERE A WARMING "HAITUS" AND IS IT OVER?
I ask one of the key questions for both scientists and the public: a few scientists suggest this ocean heating may signal the end of the alleged haitus in global warming. Do you agree there has been a pause in warming, and second, does this imply a new warming spell is arriving?
Kevin Trenberth explains that ocean temperatures, global mean temperatures, and temperatures experienced by humans over land all operate differently. The alleged "pause" experienced on land temperatures has not been mirrored by any pause in ocean heating, or the rise of sea levels, which are steadily upwards. 2014 is on track to be the hottest year on record. I will add this note: even though North America is experiencing a cold spell, Australia is quite hot, and the Arctic is way over normal temperatures.
Trenberth also says starting from the previous hottest year on record, during the 1997/98 El Nino distorts our view. We need to start from at least 1990, and then the trend is up, up, and up. "The two thousands are certainly a lot warmer than the 1990's. The "haitus" could be over, but it's hard to tell, because the current El Nino conditions are releasing heat from the Pacific Ocean.
He describes the strange increase in Antarctic sea ice area (though not necessarily an increase in volume). A change in the winds are part of that. Just as the northern hemisphere Jet Stream has loosened into larger slow loops of weather, the southern Polar winds have drawn closer to Antarctica, reducing rainfall in Australia.
I ask if this just shows the different in polar geographies, where the North Pole is in an ocean surrounded by continental land, while the South Pole is itself a small continent, surrounded by vast oceans. He says that is partly true, especially since the Arctic sea ice can never expand beyond the boundaries imposed by land.
THE LINK BETWEEN THE OZONE HOLE AND ANTARCTIC SEA ICE
A second important factor is the ozone hole in Antarctica!
"And so the ozone whole has been a really big contributor to ....the 'polar vortex'. There's a very strong set of circumpolar Westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere. That is partly caused by the lack of ozone. That's for the most part a separate problem relative to global warming but it's contributed so some of the changes and is probably one of the factors in the differences between the two hemispheres as well."
MORE WATER IN THE AIR FUELS STORMS
Kevin reminds us that the warmer atmosphere means there is about 4% more water in the atmosphere now, compared to 1970. That adds energy to storms. It can also lead to extreme precipitation events (happening all over the world) which can be record rain, or snow if the air is colder. Sound familiar?
Increased winds have also created more ocean mixing. That means more heat is being drawn down into deeper levels of the ocean, thus hiding some of our warming impact. But that heat will also come back out at some time. Warmer seas, Kevin agrees, can lead to warming that goes on for centuries, even after we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Kevin Trenberth: "What we are doing now has consequences for decades and even centuries into the future. And this is why scientists are quite concerned, very concerned about the global warming phenomenon.
By the time we, maybe the general public recognizes that it's a serious problem, it's a bit too late to do very much about it, because a lot of it's going to continue regardless, and we will then have to live with the consequences. So this is one of the clarion calls of scientists that we need to worry about the fact that the oceans respond in a very slow and sluggish fashion."
Finally I ask Kevin Trenberth what he thinks of the observations by Dr. Jennifer Francis, that weather over North America has been heavily influenced by summer melt-back of sea ice in the Arctic. He's not entirely sure about that proposal. Instead, Trenberth points out the recent impact of tropical storm Nuri, which pushed Arctic air south. In any case, the Arctic sea ice is frozen over during winter, and so should not be affecting winter weather.
Something is twisting winter weather out of shape, that's for sure. Next week I hope to get in a short ramble about how the Arctic has been abnormally hot, while most of North America suffers through an unusually early deep freeze.
Download or listen to this interview with scientist Keven Trenberth in CD Quality or Lo-Fi
MORE WATER NEWS WITH STEPHEN LEAHY
Either you have enough water or you don't. Life of all kinds depends upon the answer to that question. Along with farmers, all big cities wrestle with water issues. And some of that precious water disappears half a world away, to make the products we buy.
That's all in the new book "Your Water Footprint, The Shocking Facts About How Much Water We Use To Make Everyday Products." It's by the professional environmental journalist Stephen Leahy.
Environmental journalist Stephen Leahy
This book takes us places I didn't expect. Just the cover is shocking. Really - does it take 240 gallons of water to make a modern mobile phone? How is that possible?
Steve explains all the components of that smart phone take large amounts of water to mine, process, and assemble. That's true when we add up the water required to make practically everything we buy.
Stehen Leahy says "I'm probably wearing about 20,000 liters of water right now. And that's just pants, a shirt, a sweatshirt, socks, and a pair of shoes." That's over 5200 gallons of water for one set of clothing!!!
I remember Lester Brown of World Watch saying on Radio Ecoshock that countries don't export wheat, they export the water used to grow it. Places like Australia can hardly afford to do that.
All this adds up to a hidden international water trade, via consumer and industrial products. If we could see it, Leahy says, these would be rivers of water flowing out of North America as food, and back in from places like China and Malaysia as clothing, gear, appliances and all that.
So what? Isn't there enough water? That depends where you live. There's been a lot of news about millions of people in Sao Paulo Brazil almost running out of water. In the United States, more millions of people depend on the big underground reserves in the Ogallala Aquifer. Folks joke without that, certain States would dry up and blow away. On the plains of India, farmers are drilling deeper and deeper. Water use is far greater than the rate of replenishment. Those wells will eventually run dry.
Leahy tells us right now about 1.2 billion people on earth face chronic water shortages. There's another 2.5 billion who occasionally have water shortages. "Only about half of the people in the world has access to piped water." The rest have to haul it. About 20 percent of people in the world have no access to clean water. They have to use whatever polluted water they can find, and of course many die from easily preventable diseases.
DIRE PREDICTIONS FOR FRESH WATER AVAILABILITY
Leahy tells us:
"Even by 2025, which isn't that far away now, three in five people will be facing water shortages, the experts predict."
That's partly because we need water to produce energy. The oil and coal industry sucks up millions of gallons of water. Fracking grabs mountains of fresh water, pollutes it terrible, and then removes that water from general cirulation by pumping it into deep wells.
Add in all the irrigation and other needs to grow food, as the population expands by more billions, and as that larger population demands more consumer products (and meat) - we are headed to a big, big water crisis.
Here's the thing I like about Stephen Leahy's new book (which is based on years of his reporting global environment stories for major news services): it's crammed full of charts and graphs which make it easy. Frankly, I wasn't looking forward to reading another thick book of print. So it was a welcome surprise to find this one beams shocking and important info directly to your eye and brain. Pretty well every page is a large well-illustrated and labelled graphic. It's staying near my desk as a reference.
You can find "Your Water Footprint, The Shocking Facts About How Much Water We Use To Make Everyday Products" wherever books are sold. Follow Stephen Leahy's reporting at stephenleahy.net.
Many times, I've read one of Leahy's stories, and then found it trending in major media up to six months later. He's one of the last true full-time environmental journalists around. Support him if you can.
TOXIC HOTSPOTS
As just one example, I ask Steve what he's working on. It involves stories about the next toxic waste sites springing up across the developing world. Factories with little supervision, with the blessing (or corruption) of local governments, are using old toxic techniques to create local labor (and wealth) at any price to the environment.
Think about "Love Canal" the toxic site famous in New York State. The U.S. has hundreds of "superfund sites" that are slowly being cleaned up (somewhat). That manufacturing moves East to China, the Philippines, Malaysia, India, and parts of South America. We can expect to find loads of places where it's unsafe to live, due to chemical or even radiological pollution. Due to poverty, people will live there anyway, and get sick, and their babies will get sick.
Someday a map of the ruined world will be published, and people will wonder why anyone let that happen. We don't ask about toxic pollution from factories that make our consumer goodies. And they don't tell. Stephen Leahy is one of the few journalists on that story. It's going to be huge, and you'll hear about it from mainstream media years from now, after the damage is done. So sad.
Download or listen to this interview with Stephen Leahy in CD Quality or Lo-Fi
For a surprising twist, try this article from the US Geological Survey people. In parallel with the slight US reduction in energy, Americans are actually used 13% less water in 2013 than in 2005. There is less industry, and those that remain have improved their water handling. All that is being counter-balanced by huge increases in water use in other parts of the world.
NATURE DEFICIT DISORDER - ROB ALDRICH
It's not an official disorder taught in medical schools. Yet. But as you'll hear in this interview with Rob Aldrich of the Land Trust Alliance, some doctors are prescribing time in nature for problem children.
The term and idea of "Nature Deficit Disorder" was originated by author Richard Louv in his 2005 book "Last Child in the Woods". The Land Trust Alliance joined other groups in raising the alarm, that this separation from nature is developing into a national health crisis in America, and likely in all industrialized countries.
Rob Aldrich is the community conservation director for the Land Trust Alliance, in Washington D.C. The Land Trust Alliance is formed by about 1200 land trusts, large and small, in the United States. In a land trust, the owners sign a covenant that prevents the land from being broken up, or from being wrecked. Taken together, these land trust are an important buffer where nature still exists.
The land trust movement is also growing because it has tax advantages, especially for farmers. A farmer may not be able to pass on the farm to the next generation, due to inheritance taxes. But if that farmer guarantees it will remain a farm, they can reduce the value of the land (because it won't be developed into suburbs), and so reduce the inheritance taxes.
THE NATIONAL HEALTH CRISIS
Meanwhile, I've had reports that teachers in inner city schools can find up to 20% of the students have an inhaler with them. Asthma is that bad. Obesity is worse. Rob Aldrich describes the awful slide to obesity, even since 1990, in countless American states. Actually, they have counted those states, and in some, a full 30% of all citizens are greatly overweight, meaning 30 pounds or more for a person of about five feet five inches. It's become a national health crisis.
Rob tells us another harsh story. Apparently some maximum security prisons are showing pictures of nature to their inmates, to help them cope with 23 hours of lock-up. But think about it - are some children now kept static in classroom seats, and then driven home to spend hours watching screens on phones, TV and video games - are they not also in a kind of 23 hour lock-down?
We hear about Dr. Robert Zarr and his Parks RX project. Parents with a "hyper-active" and hard to handle young girl came to them. He prescribed two or three hours a day, each weekend, in the largest park in the Washington D.C. rea. The girl didn't need drugs, or a fixed program of things to do in the park. Just take her there and let her run around, discovering things. She was cured. She really had "nature deficit disorder."
Here is an NPR story "To Make Children Healthier A Doctor Prescribes A Trip to the Park."
We hear about the "Wingspread Declaration" to get more people out into nature. Visit www.healthandnature.org to learn more about and endorse the Wingspread Declaration.
African Americans are getting on board with this health need for nature, with groups like "Outdoor Afro".
Nature Deficit Disorder: I think we all have it. I make myself go outside for at least a couple of hours a day, more during the warmer months. We moved from the big city to see hills and the night sky. It's working. How about you?
Check this interview out, for yourself, and for your kids. Download or listen to Rob Aldrich in CD Quality or Lo-Fi
That's it for another week of Radio Ecoshock. Please support your non-profit radio station, the people brave enough to tell it like it is. As always, you can listen again on our Soundcloud page, or download any and all of our past programs, from the web site, ecoshock.org.
MUSIC INFO
As an aside, I'm adding some Indian instruments to my new tracks, thanks to an amazing plug in for my computer music program. It's called "Swar Plug" from swarsystems.com. In Sanscrit, "Swara" means a musical note in the octave. You can listen to my first production with sitar and veena at the "Swar Cafe." Scroll down on this page. It's called "California East".
I'm Alex Smith. Thank you for listening - and caring about your world.
Welcome back to Radio Ecoshock. Not a week goes by without a new, strange, and dangerous threat emerging out of the shadowy future. We start with the biggest under-reported story: unseen by land mammals, the world's oceans are heating up. That determines the future and the new coastlines for hundreds of years. We'll talk with Dr. Kevin Trenberth, one of the world's top climate scientists.
Did you know great rivers of fresh water are travelling around the world, hidden in the consumer products we buy? Environmental journalist Stephen Leahy explains his new book "Your Water Footprint".
Then Rob Aldrich says "yes, there is a growing health crisis in the Western world, and the cause is Nature Deficit Disorder".
[Sigh] It's Radio Ecoshock.
Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)
Or listen on Soundcloud right now!
KEVIN TRENBERTH ON THE HOT OCEAN
Not sure about global warming? Here's a little fact that should grab your attention. According to scientists at the University of Hawaii, the world's oceans are hotter than they have ever been in recorded history. It's a dangerous trend, and you and I may have triggered that fever.
We have one of the world's top climate scientists joining us now. Dr. Kevin Trenberth is a transplanted New Zealander. He's now the Distinguished Senior Scientist in the Climate Analysis Section, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder Colorado. His advice and science is cited all over the world.
Dr. Kevin Trenberth
According to news reports, water off New England is warming faster than almost anywhere on earth. Why is that, and what does it mean? We find an interesting connection between colder weather in Europe in recent years, and a warmer North Atlantic ocean.
He says the hotter North Atlantic may be partly a decadal rhythm. Then he adds:
"We think part of the reason the North Atlantic is as hot as it is actually stems back to some of the actions in the Pacific Ocean, through what atmospheric scientists call "Tally connections" - large waves in the atmosphere that have been associated actually with cooler conditions in Europe at that time. So the main cold outbreaks that have occurred in recent years have been in Europe rather than over the North Atlantic. As a result, the North Atlantic has been more benign and the temperatures have warmed up there."
In his answer Dr. Trenberth mentions "Talley Connections" named after Professor Lynne D. Talley, Scripps Institution. Dr. Talley is an oceanographer and co-editor of a textbook and scientific reference used by millions.
EL NINO - YES
Even though scientists have not declared a full El Nino for 2014, Trenberth says:
"There's a developing El Nino and I think we are actually in El Nino conditions, and that has altered conditions throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, and is also having an influence over the West Coast of North America."
He also connects this developing El Nino for the very active hurricane season (with major and even record storms) hitting places in the Eastern Pacific (including Japan).
SEA LEVEL RISE IS THE BEST INDICATOR OF GLOBAL WARMING
One way we can be sure ocean temperatures are rising, beyond the wide-spread network of ocean bouys, is the steadily rising sea level. Since 1992, we have satellites accurately measuring sea level. It's going up at 3.2 millimeters a year, now. That's expected to increase as warming gathers strength. For non-metric people, that adds up to a rate of a little over a foot per century - caused by two processes: ice melt from land-based glaciers like Greenland or West Antarctica; and heating of the oceans (heated water expands).
He says that sea level rise is a better indicator of climate change than measuring just global atmospheric temperatures. Other new science suggests we have underestimated warming in the oceans.
IS THERE A WARMING "HAITUS" AND IS IT OVER?
I ask one of the key questions for both scientists and the public: a few scientists suggest this ocean heating may signal the end of the alleged haitus in global warming. Do you agree there has been a pause in warming, and second, does this imply a new warming spell is arriving?
Kevin Trenberth explains that ocean temperatures, global mean temperatures, and temperatures experienced by humans over land all operate differently. The alleged "pause" experienced on land temperatures has not been mirrored by any pause in ocean heating, or the rise of sea levels, which are steadily upwards. 2014 is on track to be the hottest year on record. I will add this note: even though North America is experiencing a cold spell, Australia is quite hot, and the Arctic is way over normal temperatures.
Trenberth also says starting from the previous hottest year on record, during the 1997/98 El Nino distorts our view. We need to start from at least 1990, and then the trend is up, up, and up. "The two thousands are certainly a lot warmer than the 1990's. The "haitus" could be over, but it's hard to tell, because the current El Nino conditions are releasing heat from the Pacific Ocean.
He describes the strange increase in Antarctic sea ice area (though not necessarily an increase in volume). A change in the winds are part of that. Just as the northern hemisphere Jet Stream has loosened into larger slow loops of weather, the southern Polar winds have drawn closer to Antarctica, reducing rainfall in Australia.
I ask if this just shows the different in polar geographies, where the North Pole is in an ocean surrounded by continental land, while the South Pole is itself a small continent, surrounded by vast oceans. He says that is partly true, especially since the Arctic sea ice can never expand beyond the boundaries imposed by land.
THE LINK BETWEEN THE OZONE HOLE AND ANTARCTIC SEA ICE
A second important factor is the ozone hole in Antarctica!
"And so the ozone whole has been a really big contributor to ....the 'polar vortex'. There's a very strong set of circumpolar Westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere. That is partly caused by the lack of ozone. That's for the most part a separate problem relative to global warming but it's contributed so some of the changes and is probably one of the factors in the differences between the two hemispheres as well."
MORE WATER IN THE AIR FUELS STORMS
Kevin reminds us that the warmer atmosphere means there is about 4% more water in the atmosphere now, compared to 1970. That adds energy to storms. It can also lead to extreme precipitation events (happening all over the world) which can be record rain, or snow if the air is colder. Sound familiar?
Increased winds have also created more ocean mixing. That means more heat is being drawn down into deeper levels of the ocean, thus hiding some of our warming impact. But that heat will also come back out at some time. Warmer seas, Kevin agrees, can lead to warming that goes on for centuries, even after we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Kevin Trenberth: "What we are doing now has consequences for decades and even centuries into the future. And this is why scientists are quite concerned, very concerned about the global warming phenomenon.
By the time we, maybe the general public recognizes that it's a serious problem, it's a bit too late to do very much about it, because a lot of it's going to continue regardless, and we will then have to live with the consequences. So this is one of the clarion calls of scientists that we need to worry about the fact that the oceans respond in a very slow and sluggish fashion."
Finally I ask Kevin Trenberth what he thinks of the observations by Dr. Jennifer Francis, that weather over North America has been heavily influenced by summer melt-back of sea ice in the Arctic. He's not entirely sure about that proposal. Instead, Trenberth points out the recent impact of tropical storm Nuri, which pushed Arctic air south. In any case, the Arctic sea ice is frozen over during winter, and so should not be affecting winter weather.
Something is twisting winter weather out of shape, that's for sure. Next week I hope to get in a short ramble about how the Arctic has been abnormally hot, while most of North America suffers through an unusually early deep freeze.
Download or listen to this interview with scientist Keven Trenberth in CD Quality or Lo-Fi
MORE WATER NEWS WITH STEPHEN LEAHY
Either you have enough water or you don't. Life of all kinds depends upon the answer to that question. Along with farmers, all big cities wrestle with water issues. And some of that precious water disappears half a world away, to make the products we buy.
That's all in the new book "Your Water Footprint, The Shocking Facts About How Much Water We Use To Make Everyday Products." It's by the professional environmental journalist Stephen Leahy.
Environmental journalist Stephen Leahy
This book takes us places I didn't expect. Just the cover is shocking. Really - does it take 240 gallons of water to make a modern mobile phone? How is that possible?
Steve explains all the components of that smart phone take large amounts of water to mine, process, and assemble. That's true when we add up the water required to make practically everything we buy.
Stehen Leahy says "I'm probably wearing about 20,000 liters of water right now. And that's just pants, a shirt, a sweatshirt, socks, and a pair of shoes." That's over 5200 gallons of water for one set of clothing!!!
I remember Lester Brown of World Watch saying on Radio Ecoshock that countries don't export wheat, they export the water used to grow it. Places like Australia can hardly afford to do that.
All this adds up to a hidden international water trade, via consumer and industrial products. If we could see it, Leahy says, these would be rivers of water flowing out of North America as food, and back in from places like China and Malaysia as clothing, gear, appliances and all that.
So what? Isn't there enough water? That depends where you live. There's been a lot of news about millions of people in Sao Paulo Brazil almost running out of water. In the United States, more millions of people depend on the big underground reserves in the Ogallala Aquifer. Folks joke without that, certain States would dry up and blow away. On the plains of India, farmers are drilling deeper and deeper. Water use is far greater than the rate of replenishment. Those wells will eventually run dry.
Leahy tells us right now about 1.2 billion people on earth face chronic water shortages. There's another 2.5 billion who occasionally have water shortages. "Only about half of the people in the world has access to piped water." The rest have to haul it. About 20 percent of people in the world have no access to clean water. They have to use whatever polluted water they can find, and of course many die from easily preventable diseases.
DIRE PREDICTIONS FOR FRESH WATER AVAILABILITY
Leahy tells us:
"Even by 2025, which isn't that far away now, three in five people will be facing water shortages, the experts predict."
That's partly because we need water to produce energy. The oil and coal industry sucks up millions of gallons of water. Fracking grabs mountains of fresh water, pollutes it terrible, and then removes that water from general cirulation by pumping it into deep wells.
Add in all the irrigation and other needs to grow food, as the population expands by more billions, and as that larger population demands more consumer products (and meat) - we are headed to a big, big water crisis.
Here's the thing I like about Stephen Leahy's new book (which is based on years of his reporting global environment stories for major news services): it's crammed full of charts and graphs which make it easy. Frankly, I wasn't looking forward to reading another thick book of print. So it was a welcome surprise to find this one beams shocking and important info directly to your eye and brain. Pretty well every page is a large well-illustrated and labelled graphic. It's staying near my desk as a reference.
You can find "Your Water Footprint, The Shocking Facts About How Much Water We Use To Make Everyday Products" wherever books are sold. Follow Stephen Leahy's reporting at stephenleahy.net.
Many times, I've read one of Leahy's stories, and then found it trending in major media up to six months later. He's one of the last true full-time environmental journalists around. Support him if you can.
TOXIC HOTSPOTS
As just one example, I ask Steve what he's working on. It involves stories about the next toxic waste sites springing up across the developing world. Factories with little supervision, with the blessing (or corruption) of local governments, are using old toxic techniques to create local labor (and wealth) at any price to the environment.
Think about "Love Canal" the toxic site famous in New York State. The U.S. has hundreds of "superfund sites" that are slowly being cleaned up (somewhat). That manufacturing moves East to China, the Philippines, Malaysia, India, and parts of South America. We can expect to find loads of places where it's unsafe to live, due to chemical or even radiological pollution. Due to poverty, people will live there anyway, and get sick, and their babies will get sick.
Someday a map of the ruined world will be published, and people will wonder why anyone let that happen. We don't ask about toxic pollution from factories that make our consumer goodies. And they don't tell. Stephen Leahy is one of the few journalists on that story. It's going to be huge, and you'll hear about it from mainstream media years from now, after the damage is done. So sad.
Download or listen to this interview with Stephen Leahy in CD Quality or Lo-Fi
For a surprising twist, try this article from the US Geological Survey people. In parallel with the slight US reduction in energy, Americans are actually used 13% less water in 2013 than in 2005. There is less industry, and those that remain have improved their water handling. All that is being counter-balanced by huge increases in water use in other parts of the world.
NATURE DEFICIT DISORDER - ROB ALDRICH
It's not an official disorder taught in medical schools. Yet. But as you'll hear in this interview with Rob Aldrich of the Land Trust Alliance, some doctors are prescribing time in nature for problem children.
The term and idea of "Nature Deficit Disorder" was originated by author Richard Louv in his 2005 book "Last Child in the Woods". The Land Trust Alliance joined other groups in raising the alarm, that this separation from nature is developing into a national health crisis in America, and likely in all industrialized countries.
Rob Aldrich is the community conservation director for the Land Trust Alliance, in Washington D.C. The Land Trust Alliance is formed by about 1200 land trusts, large and small, in the United States. In a land trust, the owners sign a covenant that prevents the land from being broken up, or from being wrecked. Taken together, these land trust are an important buffer where nature still exists.
The land trust movement is also growing because it has tax advantages, especially for farmers. A farmer may not be able to pass on the farm to the next generation, due to inheritance taxes. But if that farmer guarantees it will remain a farm, they can reduce the value of the land (because it won't be developed into suburbs), and so reduce the inheritance taxes.
THE NATIONAL HEALTH CRISIS
Meanwhile, I've had reports that teachers in inner city schools can find up to 20% of the students have an inhaler with them. Asthma is that bad. Obesity is worse. Rob Aldrich describes the awful slide to obesity, even since 1990, in countless American states. Actually, they have counted those states, and in some, a full 30% of all citizens are greatly overweight, meaning 30 pounds or more for a person of about five feet five inches. It's become a national health crisis.
Rob tells us another harsh story. Apparently some maximum security prisons are showing pictures of nature to their inmates, to help them cope with 23 hours of lock-up. But think about it - are some children now kept static in classroom seats, and then driven home to spend hours watching screens on phones, TV and video games - are they not also in a kind of 23 hour lock-down?
We hear about Dr. Robert Zarr and his Parks RX project. Parents with a "hyper-active" and hard to handle young girl came to them. He prescribed two or three hours a day, each weekend, in the largest park in the Washington D.C. rea. The girl didn't need drugs, or a fixed program of things to do in the park. Just take her there and let her run around, discovering things. She was cured. She really had "nature deficit disorder."
Here is an NPR story "To Make Children Healthier A Doctor Prescribes A Trip to the Park."
We hear about the "Wingspread Declaration" to get more people out into nature. Visit www.healthandnature.org to learn more about and endorse the Wingspread Declaration.
African Americans are getting on board with this health need for nature, with groups like "Outdoor Afro".
Nature Deficit Disorder: I think we all have it. I make myself go outside for at least a couple of hours a day, more during the warmer months. We moved from the big city to see hills and the night sky. It's working. How about you?
Check this interview out, for yourself, and for your kids. Download or listen to Rob Aldrich in CD Quality or Lo-Fi
That's it for another week of Radio Ecoshock. Please support your non-profit radio station, the people brave enough to tell it like it is. As always, you can listen again on our Soundcloud page, or download any and all of our past programs, from the web site, ecoshock.org.
MUSIC INFO
As an aside, I'm adding some Indian instruments to my new tracks, thanks to an amazing plug in for my computer music program. It's called "Swar Plug" from swarsystems.com. In Sanscrit, "Swara" means a musical note in the octave. You can listen to my first production with sitar and veena at the "Swar Cafe." Scroll down on this page. It's called "California East".
I'm Alex Smith. Thank you for listening - and caring about your world.
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