SCIENCE OF THE COMING CATASTROPHE

Summary: Oil company BP says recoverable oil runs out in 50 years. American scientist James H. Brown publishes study saying this means a crash of economy and population is "very, very likely". Then Canadian climate scientist Andrew Weaver on our prospects, and why he ran for the Green Party. Radio Ecoshock 150923.

Warning: If you are already feeling depressed, this may not be the program for you. Maybe you should take a walk outside instead. Really. That would be OK.

For those still listening/reading, according to one of the world's biggest oil companies, their primary product may not be around for much longer than 50 years. In this program, a senior scientist follows that logic to find a catastrophic crash of our economy - and world population is "very, very likely".

We'll follow up with a chat with one of Canada's top climate scientists. He says we don't need more science, we need action to save ourselves. So he ran for the Green Party and got elected.

Speaking of politics, Catholic legislators in the U.S. Congress saying they will boycott the Pope's speech there because of his views on global warming, let's go to our favorite source, the father of all that's right, former President Ronald Reagan:

"Preservation of our environment is not a liberal or conservative challenge, it's common sense. Let's be sure that those who come after, will say of us in our time, we did everything that could be done."

Australia's great climate denier and coal-lover Prime Minister Tony Abbott just got the boot from his old party. His replacement is at least on record acknowledging that climate change is real and dangerous. One more to go: Canada's Tar Sands Prime Minister Stephen Harper is up for election in October, with polls showing him running dead last in public opinion.

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Of course, the political theater may all be far too late. Pop a few anti-depressants for our next guest, as Radio Ecoshock rolls on into the dystopic future.

SCIENCE OF CATASTROPHE: DR. JAMES H. BROWN

In about 50 years, oil and gas will run out . But our bubble of economic growth and increasing population will crash before that. It has to. That's according to our next guest James H. Brown, a Distinguished Professor of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. He's also the head of the Brown Lab.

This interview is not our usual fare. First of all, the crash will come less from climate change, although that is not minimized, but from the simple fast that economically retrievable oil and gas will run out. Eventually, Brown says, that means this planet will no longer be able to support billions of people. A great dying is likely, if not inevitable.

This all comes not from an out-there blogger, but from a highly reputable scientist. His paper on the subject was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) - one of the top American scientific journals. It's peer-reviewed and inspected, and was published August 4th, 2015. The title is: "Human domination of the biosphere: Rapid discharge of the earth-space battery foretells the future of humankind".

I begin by asking Brown to describe what is meant by "the Earth-Space battery". Essentially, as I understand it, this is a system where solar energy is stored in two main forms on Earth: (1) the total mass of living matter, on land and sea (plants, animals, insects, the lot) and (2) the energy stored in longer-term forms like fossil fuels, and peat.

Brown makes the case that both forms of energy on Earth are being rapidly depleted. As they are exhausted (by us, and by systems stimulated by humans) - Earth moves toward the general state of (outer) space, becoming less hospitable for living things.

In the abstract for that paper we find this scary little sentence: "With the rapid depletion of this chemical energy, the earth is shifting back toward the inhospitable equilibrium of outer space with fundamental ramifications for the biosphere and humanity."

Since the authors (the other being John R. Schramski from the University of Georgia) find that fossil energy drives most of our civilization, and that supply of fossil fuels is limited - therefore there can be no such thing as "sustainable development". That is just a myth.

Long-time listeners will find echoes here of the peak oil theory, described by guests like James Howard Kunstler and especially Richard Heinberg of the Post Carbon Institute. But there are also parallels to the work of Dr. Tim Garrett of the University of Utah. Garrett likewise found a formula where the economy, indeed "wealth" are mathematically bound to carbon burned, and therefore to emissions. There will be no meaningful cut to emissions, Garrett told us, unless and until the economy drops so precipitously it will be a crash larger than the Great Depression of the previous century. Here is a link to a transcript of my 2010 interview with Tim Garrett.

Brown also shows, scientifically, how closely world population mirrors energy availability and use. Given that BP, a source of industry data trusted by others in the industry, says we only have 50 years of economically useful fossil fuels left - what else can we see coming but a concomitant crash in population sometime in the next 50 years. That's a disaster beyond anything seen in human history, headed into the lives of anyone under the age of 30 now.

You can see this research developing in an earlier paper with Brown as lead author: "Energetic Limits to Economic Growth" as published by the American Institute for Biological Sciences on March 25, 2012. Find details on that here. Here is another Brown-led article in press for the journal Ecological Engineering: :Macroecology meets macroeconomics: Resource scarcity and global sustainability"

I have trouble with Brown's argument that economic growth has stalled due to scarcity, whether it's energy or other resources like copper or iron. It seems like we are swimming in excess oil right now, with prices dropping. Other commodity prices are also crashing, partly because Chinese demand has fallen. How can Brown you cite scarcity as a driver of a global recession, during a period of apparent abundance?

His answer is intriguing. Consider a sick person on a fixed income. If they are too sick to eat, their grocery bill might go down, and so they actually appear to have more available wealth. But really that "abundance" is a (temporary) sign of how sick the economy really is.

We also discuss the relationships between climate change and dwindling fossil fuel resources. It's always hard to tell which will hit us harder or faster. Either way, in a presentation in Baltimore last August, one of Brown's slides says : "A catastrophic crash appears inevitable."

James Brown's thinking also evolved around another big concept, the co-relation between metabolism and ecology. We won't have time to develop the whole theory this time around, but you can learn about it in this You tube video (1 hour 4 minute intriguing lecture).

Here is another useful review of this important paper by the real journalist Andrew Nikiforuk in the Canadian publication the Tyee.

I don't agree with everything Dr. Brown said in our interview. For example he says renewables cannot replace fossil fuels for cars and factories. But they can, although our lifestyles and expectations would have to change drastically. But certainly, if oil that is economical to get runs out in 50 years, we're in for a crash, if not an age of crashes. We've had a lot of guests say that. Maybe it's true.

You can download or listen to this 23 minute interview with Dr. James H. Brown in CD Quality or Lo-Fi.

AGE OF HUMANS MUSIC

Just to finish off that mood, we play a short song from Dana Pearson: "Age of Humans". Find all of Dana's work as Vastman on Soundclick.com.

FROM SCIENTIFIC STUDY TO POLITICAL ACTION: DR. ANDREW WEAVER

Let's keep going, with a climate scientist who quit science, at least for now, to become a political activist.

Is climate change unstoppable, even if we drastically cut back emissions? Are these mega-changes on our planet "irreversible"? Our guest Dr. Andrew Weaver is one of Canada's top climate scientists, most recently with the University of Victoria in Canada. He's been a lead author in many reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including the 2007 report that won the Nobel Prize.

Dr. Andrew Weaver has been featured in the film "Running on Climate". As a Canadian climate expert, Andrew has been a cornerstone of a series of reports from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and published over 200 scientific papers of his own. Now he's the first Green Member of the Legislative Assembly in the Western Canadian province of British Columbia.

Dr. Weaver was a Lead Author for the Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Published in 2013, the title is: “Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility.”

In the past couple of years, I am seeing more statements by official scientific bodies that some aspect of global warming is now "unstoppable" or "irreversible". NASA says melting of the Totten glacier complex in Antarctica is now "unstoppable". The most recent 2014 climate report of the American Meteorological Association says warming of the oceans is "unstoppable." So it's with great interest I ask Dr. Weaver about the "irreversible" changes to the climate system, and our ecological systems.

I ask him if he thinks that melting of the permafrost, during this century and the following centuries, has reached the state of "unstoppable"? And could emissions from melting permafrost and melting of Arctic methane ice cages, the clathrates, create more greenhouse gases than humans currently do?

Scientists have painted a frightening picture of massive changes to our climate, sea level, agriculture, weather extremes and extinctions if we proceed along the higher emissions pathway. I ask Dr. Weaver for his thoughts about possible results from the upcoming "Conference of the Parties" climate negotiations in Paris at the end of November 2015.

Despite his work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (which advises governments on pathways and climate decision-making) - Weaver says the whole series of COP talks have been a colossal waste of time. He likewise expects nothing of importance to come out of the Paris talks. In particular, Weaver finds talk of ending emissions by the end of this century (as the G8 countries agreed) is just posturing that actually delays the quick and big action we need right now.

DO WE NEED MORE CLIMATE SCIENCE?

Even more surprising from a long-time and well known climate scientist, Weaver questions whether we need more climate science. We already have plenty of data and proof of the nature and causes of the developing climate change. What we need is real action from our leaders. No more science needed? Shocking stuff.

Weaver told that to so many young people, he decided he should lead by example. Andrew ran for the Green Party in the Provincial elections in British Columbia Canada. He was elected on Vancouver Island, the first and so-far only Green in the Provincial government.

Like Michael Mann in the United States, Andrew Weaver was also attacked personally by a series of opinionated writers in some of Canada's major publications. When they said he wasn't even a bonifide climate scientist (among other weird accusations) Weaver sued for libel. He won the case, with damages. At least one publication often a home for climate denial issued an abject apology and fired the writer, removing all his past articles. Other publications have appealed the decision, so that battle is not over. But it certainly set an example of climate scientists fighting back against calumny.

Although we didn't talk about it this interview, Weaver is also the author of two books. As his Wiki entry says:

"His book, Keeping our Cool: Canada in a Warming World was published by Viking Canada in September 2008 (ISBN 978-0-670-06800-5). His second book, Generation Us: The Challenge of Global Warming was published by Raven Books in 2011 (ISBN 978-1-55469-804-2)."

In the interview, we return to the science, discussing many topics that listeners have raised with me in email and in Facebook comments. You can listen to or download this 29 minute interview with Dr. Andrew Weaver here, in either CD Quality or Lo-Fi.

LOVE SONG TO THE EARTH - MEGA MUSIC

We'll close out this week's program with one of those mega-productions that seem hopeful. The so-called Official "Love Song to the Earth" was directed by Jerry Cope and Casey Culver. If you listen closely, you'll hear guest appearances by a long list of stars, including Paul McCartney, Jon Bon Jovi, Sheryl Crow, Fergie, Colbie Caillat, Natasha Bedingfield, Sean Paul, Leona Lewis, Christina Grimmmie, and Victoria Justice.

According to the song notes at lovesongtotheearth.org, "Every time the song is purchased, streamed, or shared, the royalties go directly towards the efforts of Friends of the Earth to keep fossil fuels in the ground and lower carbon emissions, and to the work of the U.N. Foundation to inspire international action on climate change."

Watch and listen to "Love Song to the Earth" on You tube here.

That's a good reason to go get this song and share it with others. So maybe, just maybe, if we find the last wave of human will, we can avoid the coming catastrophe.

Despite the tsunami of warning signs coming our way, I remain, as South Africa's Desmond Tutu says, "a prisoner of hope."

I'm Alex Smith. Thank you for listening to Radio Ecoshock this week, and for caring about our world. Please don't forget to help support this work. Find out how here.

WE CAN'T ALL GO BACK TO THE LAND (or we'll kill what's left)

SUMMARY: A journey to the "Ecoreality" post-peak-oil community, with UBC Campus Radio. Plus rap star Baba Brinkman's new album "The Rap Guide to Wilderness".

We begin with a slice from the new album "The Rap Guide to Wilderness." It's called "Tranquility Bank" with guest artist Aaron Nazrul. But the genius rapper behind the whole project is Baba Brinkman. I'll be talking with Baba from New York, a little later in the show.

Baba suggests we can't all head to the wilderness, without killing what's left. Along those lines, I'm going to play you a radio documentary which takes up where the film "Escape from Suburbia" left off.

Long-time listeners may remember my interview with the Director Gregory Greene.

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A JOURNEY AWAY FROM CIVILIZATION...

In this radio documentary by Gordon Katic, we find Jan Steinman. If the film, Jan and his wife sold their suburban home in Portland, Oregon, and travelled to British Columbia. They were seeking a safe haven to prepare their lives to live without oil, after peak oil threatened a decent from civilization. How did that work out?

We find out, in this program called "The Terry Project", which broadcasts on radio station CiTR on the campus of the University of British Columbia, in Vancouver Canada.

We are going to travel to the "EcoReality" intentional community on Salt Spring Island, a mild climate spot in the Strait of Georgia near Vancouver.

Our host at the station is co-producer Sam Fenn. Our tour guide is journalism student Gordon Katic, a dedicated environmentalist who seldom leaves the big city.

In this interview we hear the song "The Mary Ellen Carter" by Stan Rogers, 1979. It's classic. Watch it on You tube here.

That's real radio. The producers were Sam Fenn and Gordon Katic. As you heard, you can get more of this program, "The Terry Project" at www.terry.ubc.ca.

Find more photos of the EcoReality intentional community here.

THE RAP GUIDE TO WILDERNESS

A listener sent me a link to something called the "Rap Guide to Wilderness". I was dubious, but I listened, and I was astonished. Where did such high quality lyrics - and music - come from?

The artist and possible founder of a whole new branch of green rap is a Canadian, Baba Brinkman. While planting over a million trees in British Columbia, he got a Masters of Arts Degree. That was partly by writing a rap version of "The Canterbury Tales" by the medieval author Chaucer. He's performed at the Edinburgh Fringe Festival, on "The Rachel Maddow Show" and at the Sydney Opera House.

The conservation group "The WILD Foundation" asked Baba to create an album, and it's here.

I reached Baba in New York, where he is touring with his off-Broadway show, a complete one-man show, called "The Rap Guide to Evolution".

Frankly, after listening to so much bad rap from somebody's You tube, I was stunned at the quality of Baba's work. Check it out!

For me one of the biggest stories in the world continues to be the way humans are creating a more sterile world. There are only 5 Northern White Rhinos left on the Planet, after a 44 year-old creature died in a zoo this December. Where is "the WILD Foundation" on the need for nature to survive?

The Wild Foundation is advocating the "half for nature" concept promoted by the famous biologist E.O.Wilson. OK, we are going to take up vast amounts of the planet for our cities and our agriculture, but to protect ourselves and biodivesity we need to plan to leave half for nature. Imagine if a developer proposes to pave over 300 acres for a new suburb. The law should require 150 acres to be left in its natural state. Who wouldn't want to live there?

Find out more from the Wild Foundation web site.

Baba Brinkman isn't just a rah-rah green cheerleader. His lyrics take us deeper into the problems environmentalists must wrestle with. In just one example, Baba finds we shouldn't try to promote a big back-to-the-land movement. Dense cities actually allow more room for nature. There's several controversial issues in his rap music - including the idea that science should use DNA tech to revive some extinct species, like the carrier pidgeon and more. Not everyone will agree that humans should tinker with species creation, or recreation (especially since the original biosphere conditions supporting those creatures may be gone now...)

In our interview, I also asked Baba why he didn't do more on climate change. I know you are tired of hearing my complaint there isn't enough good climate change music. In this case, Baba takes climate change seriously, and hopes to find a sponsor or venue to help him present a whole new rap album and show just on climate change. I'm thinking the Paris climate negotiations in 2015 would be perfect. Now we just need to find a big green group to help fund the development and staging of a new "climate rap" show!

Find Baba Brinkman at his web site, on Facebook, and Twitter.

I'M HONORED BY THE SUPPORT FOR THIS PROGRAM

My holiday thanks to a ton of people who send in news links, tweet about Radio Ecoshock, write in with guests and generally keep this program going. N. in Boston, I got your letter and your ideas.

Hello to my listeners in Zurich and Sweden.

To my Australian correspondents, keep it coming. I love the feed-back from the UK.

I appreciate all my online friends in California, Arizona and New England. Carl, you saved the Ecoshock web site.

Hello to my informers in Colorado, and my friends in India and Pakistan. And of course, all the Canadians who gave birth to the show, and Kelly who keeps it on the air in Vancouver. My gratitude and best wishes to all.

Alex Smith

Radio Ecoshock

Rapid Collapse

Are we headed for collapse? A study partly funded by NASA says a combination of crisis could bring down the global system we count on. It's not guaranteed to happen, and we can't know when. But the world supply chains, just-in-time, makes the possibility of a sudden unravelling more possible. Would you believe everything from food to power to gasoline could disappear in just a matter of weeks? From Ireland, David Korowicz explains how. Radio Ecoshock 140402.

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DAVID KOROWICZ

There is a small industry of pundits warning something is about to collapse. A large and growing public who suspect they are right. It's hard to pin down what sets analyst David Korowicz apart from the pack. Maybe it's his detailed big picture outlines that just make sense. Is that why he's in demand across the world, advising governments, business, and non-profits alike? Strangely, most of those organizations could become dis-functional very quickly, if David Korowicz is right.

It doesn't hurt that David is based in Dublin. Ireland just went through an economic beating ahead of us all. He's part of an organization named Feasta, advises government there, and runs his own business called "Human Systems Consulting". We're going to talk about two of his papers that explain why fragile systems, from the economy to the environment, could fall apart much faster than we think.

Here are the two papers we discuss:

1. "Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse"

This paper is available free from feasta.org here.

2. The second is: "Catastrophic Shocks Through Complex Socio-Economic Systems: A Pandemic Perspective"

Download that paper as a free .pdf file here.

First, we note Ireland didn't go into the Dark Ages when it hit a financial brick wall a couple of years ago. Public services still work, the roads are open, the supermarkets well-stocked. Why did Irish society surive its flirtation with utter bankruptcy? David explains.

On You tube, I watched one of David's lectures. It was titled "The Modern Economy, Civilization, Complexity, and Collapse". He began with a picture of life in Kyrgyzstan, and how that local and resilient economy will be sucked into our globalized scheme, like everybody else. Won't they be better off? Yes probably, but they will be dependent on a super-system which is in itself very fragile, and open to rapid collapse.

History shows that once a country decides to join the global economy, its difficult if not impossible to go back to self-sufficiency.

We all like to blame the bankers or Wall Street manipulators for the current economic woes, David disappoints many a conspiracy theorist by saying there is no real organizing power behind the global economy. It works the way a forest does, he says. Things work together, but there is no one in charge. That's difficult for us to accept, so this was a good talk.

We also look into how a shut-down of relatively small commodities could ripple into really big events. We discovered that when just one or two factories in Japan shut down after the Tsunami of 2011, much larger car plants in the US and Europe had to close temporarily.

Some system losses are more critical than others. A failure in the perfume supply chain is survivable. A failure in our electrical, food, or sewage systems may not be. Even a small or publicly unknown component, such a rare earths, could trigger a much larger event.

One of the cases we examine in detail is the fuel truck protest on the United Kingdom in September 2000. Refineries were blockaded, and local gas/petrol stations ran out. All sorts of business and government offices had to close or go to a skeleton staff. Supermarket shelves were about to become empty, when leaders in the food industry warned the government to take action. It was a valuable lesson.

So what could happen. Korowicz looked at the case of a failure in the European banking system. We all know Spain, Italy, and Greece banks are close to bankruptcy, requiring aid. If there is a major failure, that will not stay in Europe, Korowicz says, but echo all over the world. In just a few weeks, masses of people could lose their jobs, and maybe their food supply. It's amazing how fast those coupled system breakdowns can happen in these modern times.

It is frightening to realize that most of our goods are no longer in warehouses. The rolling trucks are the only storage for outfits like Walmart or Tesco. If the trucks stop, for any reason, supplies end, with no backup. We see this in miniature when severe weather closes roads. How many days food supply does the average city have now? Maybe 3 to 5 days worth?

The second of his papers considers what could happen if a virulent disease erupts somewhere. It could be a new strain of Bird Flu in Asia, or SAARS or something we haven't seen before. With international air travel, it could spread widely in the world in just days. Our health systems might be overwhelmed. People would be afraid to go to work.

What if 50 million people died, as happened in the 1918/1919 outbreak of Spanish influenza? David tells us when at least one third of Europeans died during the Black Plague, around 1348-50, society was far less specialized. No technology was lost. But today, if we lose just a small number of key scientists, experts, or highly specialized workers, others cannot simply fill in those gaps. Systems begin to collapse.

I won't go on about solar storms - other than to say even the U.S. Federal Electricity Regulatory Commission, FERC, quietly admitted that if just 9 key electric substations went down, the whole of the United States could be without power for weeks, or maybe even months. Don't believe me? Check it out here, here, and here (last one is a paywall Wall St Journal).

These substations could be attacked by terrorists, as we now discover happened last year when a unit was shot up by snipers. A single solar storm could do it. Or they may just fail because the U.S. hasn't invested in it's electricity system in decades.

Picture a modern country without electricity. No gas pumps, no supermarket checkouts, no heating or cooling. Municipal water systems would fail. You wouldn't have a TV or the Internet to hear about it. Social chaos is guaranteed.

That's just one scenario among many. We return to David Korowicz, who studied the possibilities due to an infectious disease, like Bird Flu, SAARS or even Ebola getting loose. Are you ready? Nobody is.

Don't miss this in-depth interview. Find out more about David at his web site or on Facebook.

Still hungry? Try this History Channel special, packed with experts, on what happens with a global pandemic, on You tube. THANKS FOR SUPPORTING RADIO ECOSHOCK!

Radio Ecoshock is listener-supported radio. My thanks to those who keep it going. Download this program, and all our past programs as free mp3s from our web site at ecoshock.org.

As we close up shop for today, I've got one last musical comment on the push to distract everyone with a new version of the old Cold War. The TV talking heads and right-wing politicians want you to get pumped up for a new enemy, 1984 style. Never mind the weather has gone strange. A nice little war, and some fat military spending, might cover up the holes in our economy, the shady banks, and all the coal and oil we burn every day.

Feel free to use my new song in any way you like, except selling it. I'm Alex Smith. Thanks so much for listening to Radio Ecoshock, and caring about your world.

Listen to this song, "Let's Have A War" or download it, here.

It was all written using my beloved DAW program Ableton Live 9 and the Massive Synthesizer from Native Instruments. My thanks to the Ableton crew in Germany for getting me this software at a big discount to help Radio Ecoshock's non-profit effort.

CRASH ON DEMAND

Do we need to break the system to save the climate? Permaculture co-founder David Holmgren says "yes", in rare radio interview. Then Nicole Foss replies. Plus Alex's climate music.

Last week on Radio Ecoshock we looked at a growing group of activists, authors and scientists who say only a serious economic crash could save us from climate doom. Now we'll talk with the man who started this flurry, the co-founder of the permaculture movement, Australian David Holmgren.

I'll follow that up with reaction from Canadian finance and alternatives expert Nicole Foss. If you care about the future, this is radio you won't want to miss.

Download/listen to this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (54 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

DAVID HOLMGREN - DESPERATE MEASURES FOR DESPERATE TIMES

Despite the hopes and warnings of the last generation, humanity is heading for the darker path of more fossil fuel development. Today's politicians are all about new pipelines, fracking, tankers, super coal mines and super coal ports, and of course endless oil.

It didn't have to be that way. We had other choices, but now the co-founder of the Permaculture movement says "Welcome to the Brown Tech Future". That train to climate disaster must be derailed for us to survive, he says, in a provocative essay called "Crash on Demand".

When it comes to David Holmgren you've either heard of him in an almost reverent way, or you haven't a clue. Along with Bill Mollison, David started the permaculture movement back in the 1970's. He's experimented with it ever since, from ecovillages and food forests to retrofitting suburbia. David is not a huge self-promoter. Outside of Australia, he's known mainly by people seeking alternatives to the system of endless growth, and pitiless pillage of the land. Find his web site here.

Download/listen to this Radio Ecoshock interview with David Holmgren (25 minutes) in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

So what are we talking about? The co-founder of Permaculture is saying we can't prevent a horrible collapse of the climate unless the current industrial-economic engine crashes. The only previous example of massive greenhouse gas reductions was when the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990's. That's what it takes, Homlgren says.

This essay is part of a longer train of writings by Holmgren. He began with the book "Permaculture One" published in 1978, when David was 23, at the University of Tasmania. After experimenting with permaculture, from his own consulting firm, Holmgren updated the vision with the 2002 book "Permaculture: Principles and Pathways beyond Sustainability". That's still the best book on the subject, and fundamental to the permaculture movement world-wide.

In 2007, David published a long essay, which became a book, "Future Scenarios". Based mainly on the expectation of peak oil, that work has the four descent senariois: Brown Tech, Green Tech, Earth Steward, and Lifeboats.

Future Scenarios, combining Peak Oil and Climate Change, was developed into a web site which fully explains his views. It's a good place for anyone to start. Future Scenarios is also available as a book from Chelsea Green.

You can buy the book "Future Scenarios" here. Or read it free online at this web site.

The next link in Holmgren's deep work came in 2009, with an analysis of the fatal marriage of the financial system to the fossil fuel energy industry.

Download David's 2009 essay, which is part of this train of thought, and this Radio Ecoshock interview, "Money vs Fossil Energy: The battle for control of the world" from this web page.

Now we have "Crash on Demand, Welcome to the Brown Tech Future".

Find "Crash on Demand" at this web site, or download it as a .pdf here.

In our interview, David says he suggested the four scenarios as short-term futures, possibly covering decades. Now he finds humanity has chosen one of the paths, the most deadly for the climate and ourselves, the "Brown Tech Future". In it we find desperate measures like the Tar Sands, Oil Shale, and fracking.

Meanwhile, Holmgren explains these four scenarios can exist at the same time, nestled within one another. For example, while the Brown Tech future dominates the world financial system, more and more people are opting out either as Earth Stewards, or building personal and local "lifeboat" economies (like permaculture).

The founder of Transition Towns, Rob Hopkins, is critical of this new Holmgren stance. Rob thinks we can work through the existing system. For example, he wants to make sure local governments continue, so we have the organization needed to change in stages.

SHOULD WE BRING IT DOWN?

But is Holmgren really calling on us to actively cause a crash of the world financial system? He says the great weakness of the world economy is it is built on faith - our belief it is real and keeps on going. If enough of the world's billion-or-so Middle Class stop believing, and remove their money and their working lives from the system, it will crash. It wouldn't take much of a trigger to destabilize such a fragile system. Perhaps if just 5 percent of people opted out, it may go down, Holmgren postulates.

People close to David say he is not really calling for us to destabilize the current economy, other than to change away from it - toward the things he has been advocating for decades: form local economies, and change to "permaculture" - a permanent culture. It's hard to nail David down on what he really means. I'm told he will be publishing a boil-down and clarification on his site in the next week or two. Look for that.

Meanwhile, in our radio interview, David points out he is far from alone in saying the system will crash, or need to do so. I've interviewed climate scientists, like Professor Tim Garrett from the University of Utah, who also calculate only a financial collapse could save us from unstoppable climate change. We talked about others in last week's interview with Albert Bates. But there are also a huge number of bloggers and financial experts who say a severe correction is coming.

Here is just one example, from a thousand, of a middle class person who wants to help the system down, without any mention of climate change or peak oil.

If you want to know more, here is a You tube video series with David Holmgren.

Also, find another recent (Feb. 2014) interview with David on the show "21st Centruy Permaculture" on Shoreditch Community Radio (serving East London).

Read a response to David's Crash on Demand article by Dmitri Orlov, author of "Five States of Collapse". If we want to avoid "the climate cooker" as he calls it, David Holmgren says citizens can help tip the financial system over, by withdrawing money and investments, while living outside the consumer economy. Orlov does the math, and says there aren't enough activist citizens to make any difference.

Part of the tumultuous reaction can be found in this article by KMO, host of the C-Realm Podcast (and check out the comments below the article)

NICOLE FOSS on HOLMGREN

Can we save ourselves from the worst of climate change by helping an unstable economic system to collapse? That's the idea put forward by permaculture founder David Holmgren in his paper "Crash on Demand".

Our next guest wrote a deep and provacative article about Holmgren, climate change, and a crash. She travels the world, from New Zealand to Europe, giving lectures - which are now available as a 4-hour DVD set.

Nicole has been a specialist in nuclear safety in the UK, and editor of the Peak Oil journal "The Oil Drum Canada". Now she is co-editor at one of the Net's more popular financial blogs, theautomaticearth.com, where she writes as "Stoneleigh".

From her homestead in Ontario, Canada - we welcome Nicole Foss back to Radio Ecoshock.

Download/listen to this Radio Ecoshock interview with Nicole Foss in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

Read this essential essay about David Holmgren's "Crash on Demand" by Nicole Foss.

Nicole knows David Holmgren well. Later this year she will tour Australia with him, in a series of lectures. In our interview she explains very well the "Crash on Demand" paper and the four scenarios.

Foss raises a two-fold objection to David's idea of "Crash on Demand". First, she says the system is so corrupt and unbalanced it will fall over by itself; and second, when it does, some people will blame the permaculture movement, for wrecking the system.

In her essay, and our interview, Nicole points us to a European expert on systems analysis and large-scale economics. That's David Korowicz.

He's written a paper titled "Trade-Off, Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse." How does Korowicz fit into our future? I hope to talk with him soon.

Essentially, Korowicz explains how a relatively simple trigger, whether it's a deadly virus hitting Asian factories, or a combination of extreme weather events, could bring down everything we take for granted, much faster than anyone thinks. It could cascade into a major economic slow-down in a matter of weeks.

DON'T TALK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE?

In her response to Holmgren, and almost as an aside, Nicole Foss suggests maybe we should stop talking about climate change:

"The economic contraction that is coming is very likely to have a far more substantial impact on emissions than any deliberate policy or collective action. The combination of this contraction and constructive collective action could be very powerful indeed, but achieving the latter action is not best done on the grounds of climate change. The same actions that would best address climate change in the aggregate are also the prescription for dealing with financial crisis and peak oil – hold no debt, consume less, relocalize, increase community self-sufficiency, reduce dependency on centralized life-support systems.

The difference is that both financial crisis and peak oil are far more personal and immediate than climate change, and so are far bigger motivators of behavioural change. For this reason, addressing arguments in these terms is far more likely to be effective. In other words, the best way to address climate change is not to talk about it."

At first that seems outrageous. But you must read the full essay, and listen to this interview.

Essentially, Nicole worries that fear of climate change, once realized by the public, could drive us towards even worse outcomes. For example, we may demand immediate action to save us from the (drought, heat wave, floods, fires) - leading to geoengineering pollution that hides emissions and makes everything worse. Or we may demand/allow a new type of eco-fascism - command and control state regulating every part of our lives (perhaps combined with the new spy state). And, as now, we can count on a gang of billionaires to cook up schemes that don't work but enrich themselves.

Why risk all that, Foss argues, when people can move toward a more sustainable lifestyle driven simply by concerns about a collapsing economy and peak energy? I disagree of course, and will continue to communicate about climate change in the Radio Ecoshock show.

Humanity is up against a novel and horrific set of problems, (energy, economy, overpopulation, nuclear disaster,climate change). We need a wide range of proposals and thought before we find any way out. That means tolerance and respect among ourselves, for a diversity of speakers and opinions. People who are so sure they are right, and everyone who disagrees is wrong, to the point of calling others "traitors", "idiots" and the like - are just weakening the whole discussion, and our possibilities. It's sad to see intellectual tyrants ranting at low levels, but I suppose the stress of our unwinding makes this inevitable from some people.

WORRIES OF A QUIET SUN

In this program, I add a small note. I'm concerned about the latest reports that the Sun is entering or at least experiencing a period of minimum solar activity. There are hardly any solar storms or sun spots.

This could develop into a relative cooling influence. A similar period, that went on for over 40 years from the 1550's to the 1850's brought several lengthy cold periods called "The Little Ice Age". Rivers in Europe froze over, crops were affected, etc. I doubt that will happen now, due to the blanket of greenhouse gases we've tossed into the atmosphere. But a quiet sun may hide some of the true impacts coming due.

IF we encounter a dimunition of solar power, say for a decade or three - that might modify the true amount of warming latent in the atmosphere from our GHGs. The climate deniers would have field day, predictions of 4 degrees by 2035 would be laughed at, and we would squander that time to de-carbonize, adding petatons more carbon equivalent to the atmopshere.

Then when the sun inevitably heats up, perhaps experience a few decades of active solar storms, we would be cooked.

We don't know, nobody knows, if this quiet sun is just part of the normal 11 year cycle, or whether we are entering a longer period.

Pray for the return of sun spots my friend, so fickle humans can experience the current reality, rather than coasting into doom (which we may do anyway..) Although most scientists tell us the state of the sun is a relatively small factor in our climate, compared with our greenhouse gas emissions.

YOUR PART IN RADIO ECOSHOCK

I close out this program with my pathetic attempt to write new climate music. It's called "Burning Down the Future". If you missed it, download it here.

I've already received on email from a listener begging me to never sing again. As a compromise, I'll put my future songs at the end of the show, so you can turn it off!

I have several reasons for taking up "climate music" as a hobby.

First, there is a real need for it! I hope to inspire better artists to get active in climate change by writing better songs.

Second: it's apparent that just talking about these grave threats can never reach enough people, or bring action. The arts have always been needed to complement the rational mind.

Finally, I need the outlet to save my own brain from the stress of dealing with these stories. Sorry, you'll have to put up with more "music" from Alex in the future.

Perhaps better musicians will do a re-mix or perform one of my songs. (I was a pro-musician decades ago). I encourage anyone out there to take a shot at it and send me your results.

We are talking about whether humans will have a future, and what it will be. I encourage you to download this program from my web site, ecoshock.org. Listen again, and please, pass on the show, or the links, to everyone you know. This has to get out far and wide, while there is still time, if there is still time. I count on you to make this particular show sing on the Net, on social media, and through all personal contacts. You can use this "tiny url" in Tweets or Facebook posts: http://tinyurl.com/lqcbd8h

At the very least, please "Like" the show Facebook page?

My special thanks to the non-profit station relaying Radio Ecoshock to you. Please support your local community station.

You make Radio Ecoshock possible through your financial support for this program, via my web site, ecoshock.org or my show blog at ecoshock.info. Please come back to this blog, published Wednesdays, so you can follow up and grow with me.

I'm Alex Smith. Thank you for listening and caring about our world.

Is This Peak History?

A joint study between the University of Maryland and a Barcelona University digs deep into our energy future. From Berlin, guest Christian Kerschner. Janaia Donaldson of Peak Moment TV interviews Alex Smith. Radio Ecoshock 131106 1 hour.

Listen to/download this program in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

Peak oil. It isn't what you think, and it hasn't gone away. From Berlin, I interview Christian Kerschner about a new European-American energy depletion study.

But what is Radio Ecoshock all about? Find out as Janaia Donaldson of Peak Moment TV interviews me - and of course I'll take my turn, asking Janaia why we are all living in the "peak moment" of human history.

In this interview I summarize the historic threats posed by climate change and Fukushima - all based on the scientists and experts I've interviewed.

I'm Alex Smith. Welcome to Radio Ecoshock.

JOINT AMERICICAN-EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY STUDY OF PEAK OIL

Dr. Christian Kerschner, University of Barcelona

Has Peak Oil been blown away by shale, tar sands and fracking? What industries are already in trouble with today's high oil prices? A joint study between the University of Maryland and a Barcelona University digs deep into our energy future.

Our guest is Christian Kerschner. He's with the Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. We reached him in Berlin.

Download or listen to this 18 minute interview with Christian Kerschner in CD Quality only.

ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO PEAK OIL

The project called is "Economic Vulnerability to Peak Oil."

A key graphic accompanies this paper in the journal Global Environmental Change. It is the "vulnerability map" - demonstrating which sectors are most vulnerable to high energy prices or shortage, and even more important, their role in the overall economy.

For example, the actual plastics plants do not rank high in their contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of any country. But think about it. Almost everything uses plastic somewhere in its construction. If plastic becomes more and more expensive, the cost of everything you buy goes up. If shortages of plastic develop, even for short periods, there could be giant impacts on the economy and our lives.

I expect some investment firms will look closely at these findings. For example, a pension fund may not want to buy thirty-year bonds in airlines or chemical plants. But guest Christian Kerschner disagrees. He thinks a much-needed function, like chemical production, may simply draw more resources from the overall budget, causing the collapse of other industries, not the chemical plants.

Think of giving up luxury products to buy the necessities. Makers of luxury products fail, not the chemical industry itself. This is just one example from many examined in the study.

Christian Kerschner has a lot to offer. Unlike many peak oil pundits, he's studied and graduated looking at alternative economics. In addition to Peak Oil and resource scarcity, Kerschner also studied and published about steady-state economics.

I think an economy which survives its own carbon use will have to be much smaller. In our interview Christian agrees.

In this paper, I was intrigued by the concept that energy flows may be limited simply by available technology. That imply that no matter how much money we throw at developing fossil fuels, we still hit a ceiling, a point where the return on investment is too low to continue. That's different than saying there is no further oil or gas out there.

Christian Kerschner is an ecological economist from the Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Co-authors of this paper include Christina Prellb, Kuishuang Fengc, and Klaus Hubacekc, from the University of Maryland.

I think this joint-university work, bridging the Atlantic, is a milestone for the study of Peak Oil, and resources generally. Here is a link to the informative press release, plus the paper abstract complete with the all-important graphics in an easier to see format are further down on that abstract page.

ALEX SMITH MEETS JANAIA DONALDSON, ON PEAK MOMENT TV

Janaia Donaldson, host of Peak Moment TV

Peak Moment TV has been going since 2006. Host Janaia Donaldson and producer Robin Mallgren travel around the West Coast of North America, looking for issues and solutions. Find out more here.

The program was inspired by the problems of Peak Oil - but expanded into a range of issues, including energy, resource shortages, and the environment. This program looks intently for people who offer solutions.

Judging by their backlog of worthwhile programs on the Net, this dynamic duo found the people you want to hear from most. Shows cover things like local currency, small-scale food production, alternative energy for the rest of us, and much more.

It was an honor to be invited. Janaia offered me the challenge to outline the dual mega-problems of climate change and the nuclear meltdowns at Fukushima, Japan.

That's a big menu. I did my best to summarize what my guests have taught me - and our Radio Ecoshock listeners. We looked at the sudden arrival of climate symptoms, like the melting Arctic and super-storms - decades before they were expected by mainstream scientists. I explained the vanguard of climate scientists as I've found them.

We also discuss the impact of climate change on the economy, especially our total dependence on the flow of money from fossil fuel exploration and production. If we are to survive, we need to escape that addiction.

Then it's on to Fukushima, where nuclear experts like Arnie Gunderson, and activists like Helen Caldicott, have schooled me well. I've also studied English-language blogs from Japan, Japanese media, and American activists.

Adding it up: Fukushima is out of control. If you think my fears for threats there are too extreme, watch this short video clip of esteemed Canadian geneticist and broadcaster Dr. David Suzuki, recorded from a panel discussion at the University of Alberta on October 30th.

Going even further with my concerns of a building Four collapse at Fukushima, Suzuki says such an event means Japan is "toast". And - the West Coast of North America might have to be evacuated, due to an unprecedented release of radiation.

In this Peak Moment interview, I explain why.

For what it's worth, last month I moved out of Vancouver, two mountain ranges to the East and inland. Fear of Fukushima was not our primary motivation to leave, but it was on my mind. Frankly, we just don't know how this nuclear mega-threat will turn out, do we?

For more, listen to the interview, and our past Radio Ecoshock shows on Fukushima. I've never stopped covering it. The accident will not be "over" in our lifetimes.

WHAT IS PEAK MOMENT?

Following our lengthy TV interview, I ask Janaia Donaldson about her program. She suggests we are at an essential moment in human history, and the history of the planet. I would interpret this to mean our direction now could determine success or human extinction. This is a critical time.

It turns out that Peak Moment TV is still broadcast on community access television in the United States and other countries - but the larger and developing audience is on the Internet. Programs from 7 years ago, like "Suburban Renewal - One Backyard at a Time" have over 35,000 views. And there are over 250 shows available - all free!

I totally recommend this program. Like me, in these show I think you'll find ideas for your future, for a sustainable and enjoyable future. You will meet and explore with inspiring folks who looked for answers, and found solutions.

Here is the Peak Moment TV channel on You tube. This is the Peak Moment TV web site.

You can download or listen to my appearance on Peak Moment TV, as an audio file, here in CD Quality or Lo-Fi. The audio is courtesy of Robin Mallgren. I'm hoping you can use this interview to educate others coming into these issues. Please spread these links far and wide.

Find Janaia Donaldson as a Radio Ecoshock guest (8 minutes) here in CD Quality or Lo-Fi.

The Alex Smith interview will be released as a video later this month.

Thank you Janaia and Robin for everything you do!

COMING UP:

Next week we'll visit the best of the Chicago Great Lakes Bioneers conference. You think only the Russian persecute green activists who speak out? Stay tuned, as America goes after it's own conscience - just as we head into the insanity of another "holiday" season of senseless mass consumption and planetary destruction.

Support Radio Ecoshock if you can, at the web site, ecoshock.org. And grab free mp3s of all our past programs. If you search "Radio Ecoshock" on You tube, you will find a few of my own videos.

I'm Alex. Thank you for listening - and caring about your world.

Power Down or Power Shift?

Did fracking kill off Peak Oil? Or just the world's hope of alternative energy? Coming up, energy guru Richard heinberg on his new book "Snake oil, How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future."

But if conventional society can't power down, maybe we need a Powershift. Two budding youth activists heading for the October Powershift meet-up in Pittsburg tell it like it is. Later we'll hear Howard University Senior Brian Menifee, but Radio Ecoshock starts right now with this moving story from West Virginia. I'm Alex Smith.

Download/listen to this Radio Ecoshock Show in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

ADAM HALL - VETERAN COAL FIGHTER

Adam Hall was born into West Virginia, near the coal mining operations. His father worked a lifetime for a subsidiary of Peabody Coal. That company was sold, renaming itself "Patriot" - and doomed to failure. The workers lost their pensions, Adam says, including his father.

Adam also mourns the loss of the mountains he grew up with. Many have been blasted away and levelled in "mountain-top-removal" mining for coal. Natural water systems were filled with rubble, and drinking water for many residents was ruined (with no compensation).

All this took Adam Hall, a veteran who rebelled against the military, to the steps of Peabody Coal headquarters. His weapon was a bull-horn.

It's a powerful sad story about the true cost of coal, and true grit to fight it.

In our interview Adam Hall recommended about Iheartmountains dot org. He meant Ilovemountains.org.

Find out more about Adam's inspiration, long-time mountain protector Larry Gibson at www.mountainkeeper.org.

If you want to become a coal activist, Adam says this is a good place to start: RAMPS (Radical Action for Mountain Peoples' Survival) is where you can get your action on. That's rampscampaign.org.

Download/listen to Adam Hall's story in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

RICHARD HEINBERG - FRACKING DOES NOT KILL PEAK OIL (but does imperil the planet)

Richard Heinberg

We've all been told hydraulic fracturing - fracking - will make the United States into the new Saudi Arabia. The UK, Poland, China and probably everywhere else, will get new energy riches too. Already, American oil and gas production have increased for the first time in decades. Has fracking proved the Peak Oil theorists wrong?

Here to help us is one of the best known writers on energy depletion. In 2003, Richard Heinberg published one of the first big books on the subject: " The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies". He's been publishing the popular "Museletter" since 1992. Now Richard Heinberg returns to Radio Ecoshock with his answer to fracking, the new book "Snake Oil, How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future". Read the introduction to the book here.

Listen to/download Richard Heinberg on Radio Ecoshock (26 min)in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

A lot of this new book by Heinberg is about the economic illusion behind the fracking bandwagon. Beyond the energy companies large and small, who is making big money from the fracking boom? Mainly Wall Street Investment Bankers. They can make money betting on both the success and failures of fracking companies.

Some of the gas frackers are actually losing money, with the high cost of drilling a fracking well (up to $10 million for one well) and the low price for natural gas.

Of course all the companies are on what energy specialist David Hughes calls "the treadmill to Hell." The fracked wells stop producing commercial quantities very fast, in as little as a couple of years. So thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of new fracking wells must be drilled just to keep up production.

Heinberg says much of his book explains a study done for the Post Carbon Institute (where Heinberg is a Senior Fellow) by the Canadian oil geologist David Hughes. That big report, based on industry drilling info on 60,000 fracked wells - is called "Drill Baby Drill". Find it here.

I wish more people would talk about the sinful idiocy of pushing tons of man-made toxic chemicals into the deep ground ecology. There is life down there, plus important networks of water. Haven't humans just found a new way to expand our sphere of pollution?

Will those million old wells leak, or create unwanted pathways for underground change?

Richard Heinberg is the long-time author of the online journal "The Museletter", he's been the voice of the Peak Oil movement with books like "The Party's over" and "Peak Everything". We've been talking about his latest of ten books, "Snake Oil, How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future". It's a good read, packed with facts we all ought to know.

Find more of Richard's work at The Post Carbon Institute public web site - resilience.org

Learn more about Heinberg's books at richardheinberg.com

You can go to our web site at ecoshock.org and search "Heinberg" to find more than a half dozen speeches and interviews by Richard.

BRIAN MENIFEE - ECO-JUSTICE IN WASHINGTON D.C.

We wrap up this Radio Ecoshock with another voice the mainstream media misses - another young eco-justice activist headed to this year's Powershift in Pittsburg Pennsylvania, October 18th to 21st. Get the details at wearepowershift.org

We find Brian Menifee already a leader in Washington DC as a Howard University senior. When Brian talks about the environment, he always talks about justice too.

Take it from me Brian, once your become a trouble-maker at a young age, it never leaves you. You will never accept bad things going on. You will always be looking for justice. Are you ready? Brian Menifee says he is. Check it out - it's radio you won't get anywhere else.

Download/listen to Brian Menifee (14 minutes) in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

WE NEED TO VOTE ON CLIMATE ACTION!

We need a chance to vote about climate action - that never happens. And every human alive and breathing should get that vote. Give us all a vote on what we really want. Doesn't that need to happen?

Why do we always have to vote for the least-worst candidate, on a basket of issues. If humankind's existence is at stake, let's vote on what we want done to save the climate. Directly.

Join us next week for more Radio Ecoshock - in our first broadcast from the mountains.

MUSIC THIS WEEK: EARTHRISE SOUNDSYSTEM

All our music this week is from the new album "Rock Beats Paper" by Earthrise SoundSystem from Black Swan Sounds.

Song Clip 1: "Rock Beats Paper" featuring Kevin Mambo, released September 25 on Blackswansounds.com

Song Clip 2: "Let's Get Together" (featuring Srikala and C.C. White)

HELP KEEP RADIO ECOSHOCK ON THE AIR

If you know a station that should be carrying Radio Ecoshock, write me. The address is radio at ecoshock dot org. Download all our past programs as free mp3s at our web site, ecoshock.org.

To help keep this program going, please consider a monthly membership. Check out this page for details.

I'm Alex Smith. Thank you for your support, and a special thanks for caring about your world.

Has The World Gone Crazy, Or Is It Just Me?

Journalist and scientist Andrew Freedman: what new science is saying about freaky 2013 weather. Plus Dr. Kathy McMahon "the Peak Oil Shrink." Kathy tells us about Nicole Foss, "sucky collapse", and a surprising turn in her own life. Radio Ecoshock 130206

Remember normal winters? Actually, anyone under the age of 26 has never seen one. Maybe we thought global warming would just add a bit more slush. But January 2013 showed us what "climate disruption" can really do. One January day, people in Chicago were out jogging in 60 degree heat, 15 degrees C, with no snow. Just 30 hours later the temperature dropped 60 degrees F and more, with an Arctic blast for a couple of days.

It's been a strange, strange month in the Northern Hemisphere. Here to help us figure out what is going on, we have Andrew Freedman. He's the senior science writer for the respected blog "Climate Central". Andrew is a professional reporter, published widely, and holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University.

Then you'll join me for a talk with a shrink. With all the bad news, we sure need one. Kathy McMahon is the "Peak Oil Shrink", a clinical psychologist who specializes in energy, climate, and the recovery that looks more like a Depression every day. Kathy tells us about Nicole Foss, "sucky collapse", and a surprising turn in her own life.

Time on and off the couch, with Radio Ecoshock. I'm your audio companion, Alex Smith.

FREE AUDIO DOWNLOADS THIS WEEK:

The Radio Ecoshock Show February 6th, 2013 1 hour in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

My interview with Andrew Freedman, Senior Science writer at Climate Central (20 min) in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

The Radio Ecoshock interview with "Peak Oil Shrink" Kathy McMahon (37 min) in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

LISTEN TO THE SHOW RIGHT NOW ONLINE:



Music Credit: "Whose World Is This?" Jim Page.

ANDREW FREEDMAN

Andrew Freedman is the senior science writer for the respected blog "Climate Central". Andrew is a professional reporter, published widely, and holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University.

Andrew Freedman

Freedman tells us Minneapolis, in the Northern State of Minnesota, finally broke a record streak of more than 4 years without going below zero degrees Fahrenheit, or minus 17 degrees C. That stuns me. That is nothing like the northern states winters I grew up with. And it's been really, really strange in Chicago.

People have been enjoying record winter heat, especially in 2012, and then they get battered by weather from some Arctic Hell. In fact, one day the news reported it was warmer at the North Pole than in the northern United States. How could that happen?

We go to the science behind this, starting with something called a "sudden stratospheric warming event". Andrew explains in this great article, which includes a good graphic showing how a dome of warmer air over the Arctic split the cold and pushed it further south.

I picked up on that story January 15th courtesy of this article in the Daily Kos.

Then we discuss one of the big scientific theories out there explaining the strange weather patterns. It was advanced by Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University. She describes observations connecting the massive sea ice melt in the Arctic with disruptions of the Jet Stream that determine much of our weather.

You can download my September 10th, 2012 interview with Jennifer Francis in CD Quality here, or in faster downloading, lower quality Lo-Fi here.

My blog for that program on the Arctic ice melt, including Francis plus Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center and Arctic specialist scientist Cecilia Bitz (University of Washington) is here.

I've just watched a long video on You tube with Dr. Francis updating her research, at the Climate and Weather conference in Breckenridge, Colorado in early January 2013. She and her team found more evidence that the Jet Stream has changed. If you want to keep up to date with this science, put some time into that video.

More details on that conference presentation by Francis here.

In fact, in my Radio Ecoshock interview with Jennifer Francis, she objected to me calling her paper a "theory". She says it is really just about observations of events already seen.

Here are two important articles about freaky weather science in early 2013, by our guest Andrew Freedman at Climate Central.

1. Not reported by most mainstream news, there was a giant Atlantic storm in January. Andrew reported it here, and the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang did a decent job on it too.

2. Andrew Freedman was also contacted by other scientists who said there could be a tropical link to the strange winter weather. Find that story here, and learn about something called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. I didn't know about it until now.

I learned a lot from Andrew, and hope to have him back on Radio Ecoshock.

HELP KEEP RADIO ECOSHOCK GOING!

Listener-supported Radio Ecoshock isn't selling anything. If you've been thinking about helping this program keep going, now is a good time. Find out how, at our web site, ecoshock.org.

KATHY MCMAHON, "THE PEAK OIL SHRINK"

Kathy McMahon

Has Peak Oil been postponed by fracking, the Tar Sands and deep sea drilling? Why does our society seem crazier by the day?

Do millions of people hope this system will collapse? How do they cope when it doesn't? How will any of us live with the never-ending bad news about climate change? How do we really feel inside?

For a way to find answers, it's time to check in with the original Peak Oil shrink.

Dr. Kathy McMahon is a clinical psychologist. She is recognized internationally for her writing about the psychological impacts of Peak Oil, climate change, and economic collapse. In October 2010, I interviewed Kathy about the "pathological optimism" of people who think this fossil economy will just go on forever, like a 1950's TV show.

Here is a description of that speech and interview with Kathy in 2010:

PEAK OIL VS PATHOLOGICAL OPTIMISM Why are we "the Doomers" for thinking oil is limited? Clinical psychologist Kathy McMahon ("the Peak Shrink") finds people all over the world are worried about fossil civilization collapsing. In this hot new speech, get answers for our own sanity, in a crazy world. Recorded by Alex Smith. Ecoshock 101029 1 hour CD Quality 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB. End music "End of the Age of Oil" by David Rovics. Extra 20 min interview Alex and Kathy here.

KATHY'S BLOG

Keep up to date with Kathy McMahon at her Peak Oil Blues blog here!

In this new in-depth Radio Ecoshock interview, we talk about the way aging baby boomers tend to clog up the airwaves and group thinking. Then we look at the plight of young people captured by big student debt. Check out Kathy's excellent article about the stress of student debt here.

Our main topic though is what Kathy calls "Sucky Collapse". It isn't zombies or fighting in the street. It's the slow and tortuous decline of so many things we take for granted. We hear about someone being assigned a second job, with the same pay, and fewer benefits. The cans of soup cost the same, but they are smaller. While we are waiting for some big event, money is worth less, and gas costs more, until the whole system kind of sucks us down.

I first heard Kathy talk about "sucky collapse" on the "C-Realm" podcast by KMO. That's a good place to check, find KMO's interview with Kathy here. Thanks for the idea, KMO!

Nicole Foss, also known as Stoneleigh from the popular financial blog The Automatic Earth just visited Kathy. We get that inside scoop on what Nicole is like, and what she's up to. Kathy will bring out her own personal interview with Nicole soon. And Nicole has a new 4 DVD set of her speeches and more. Check that out here.

Kathy says we need happiness in our individual lives, even if the larger world is grim. Is your own area overpopulated? If not, maybe it's good to have a child. Get it? Dont' confuse your personal life with the global situation. They are related but not the same!

This is your only time on Earth, you have a RIGHT to seek happiness, to live fully as you can, as ethically as you can, but live it! Don't give up when everyone else does.

It's a deep and helpful interview. If any of you have time to create a transcript, I know that would be useful. Email me first, so we don't waste time with duplicate effort. My email address is radio [at] ecoshock.org

NEXT WEEK ON RADIO ECOSHOCK

Next week on Radio Ecoshock, we'll have more science of course. I'll be talking with one of the big brains on biodiversity, Dr. Thomas Lovejoy. He introduced the world to the word "biodiversity", helped found the PBS series "Nature", has advised Presidents, the World Bank and much more.

But we'll also go back to psychology and even (gasp!) spirituality. Why? It seems even when we know the facts, humans don't act. We'll explore those mental blocks, and the people who get past all that, with the popular speaker, author, and adviser Dr. Carolyn Baker.

Thank you for lending your brain toward recognition and real recovery. As Kathy McMahon said, we have but one life to live.

Grab lots of free audio from our web site. Please donate or subscribe to the program if you can. More info

here. I'm Alex Smith, saying: be kind to yourself, take it day at a time, and find others to help you through the big change.

We go out the way we came in, with Seattle's Jim Page singing "Who's World Is This?"

Why Is the Economy Shrinking? - Richard Heinberg

Endless growth is a delusion with consequences...The spiral of climate change, peak energy, and economic crisis, with author Richard Heinberg. Fresh interview on giant new book "Energy: Overdevelopment and the Delusion of Endless Growth". Followed by speech to Chicago Bioneers "Life After Growth: Why the Economy Is Shrinking and What to Do About It”. Radio Ecoshock 130116

Download/listen to this Radio Ecoshock show (1 hour) in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

Download/listen to my Radio Ecoshock interview with Richard Heinberg (17 minutes) in CD Quality or Lo-Fi

Download/listen to Richard Heinberg's speech to the Chicago Great Lakes Bioneers conference (42 minutes) in CD Quality or Lo-fi.



Please donate to Radio Ecoshock from our blog, or from our web site. Your financial help keeps me digging and broadcasting the awful truth.

And now, one with the show.

Richard Heinberg, California.

Eye-popping, jaw-dropping, - I'm out of words to describe the tsunami of agencies and experts admitting our troubles are bigger than our brains.

But this week we're going to step back from brink. I want to explore what it means. But who can assemble the currents of climate change, peak energy, and a delusional economy into a big picture? Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute is one of the few who consistently keeps track of all three. He's the author of 10 books including "The Party’s Over", "Peak Everything", and "The End of Growth".

I start by calling Richard up about a very big new book, and then we'll hear his assessment from his keynote speech at the Great Lakes Bioneers Conference in Chicago. I knew some of the facts Richard brings out, but I didn't know how these forces of collapse interact, or when.

THE BIGGEST BOOK I'VE EVER OWNED

I wanted to give Richard Heinberg Hell for wasting resources on an eight pound monster book - about wasting precious resources!

The book "Energy, Overdevelopment and the Delusion of Endless Growth" is so big, I had to clear off my desk just to look at it. But then I got sucked in, by 2 foot photos of the-wide photos of the nasty industrial mess hiding behind our cars and smart-phones. Why didn't I know it's that bad out there?

The book has huge photos of even larger landscapes, places wrecked by our insatiable need for more and more energy. I began to wonder: why don't we see these images in the media, or in our daily lives? Are they censored, or is it because we don't want to look?

For one thing, Richard points out, if you don't have a private plane, you'll never see most of these energy reserves. They are generally in the out back lands. Plus, since 911, most of these energy farms have private security guards and the threat of being labeled a terrorist if you are there taking pictures.

I've seen horrible photos of the Canadian Tar sands oozing across the scarred landscape, as far as the eye can see. But until this book, I didn't realize the vast impact of conventional oil and gas production. Richard and I talk about "energy sprawl".

I was taken by the paper by the former Director of the C.I.A., R. James Woolsey. He says we are ready to spend billions fighting malevolent groups like Al Queda, but we totally unwilling to even talk about what he calls the "malignant threats" like system collapse of things like our electric grid, or the climate. Richard Heinberg has experienced that unwillingness to look, talk, and act for much of his professional life.

Surprisingly, this book includes green favorites like wind energy and solar farms as "blighted industrial landscape". And yet, despite the hard-headed figures on world energy sources and things like return on energy investment, I was surprised by the photos and essays on the importance of wild places and the species that live there. Is this a return to the old environmentalism?

Along those lines, I notice the flagship web site and discussion spot for the Post Carbon Institute has changed from the well-known "Energy Bulletin" to a completely new site, Resilience.org Richard Heinberg explains why, and notes some of the new resources aimed at helping us all relocalize.

He also says you can read some of the essays from the book online at resilience.org as time develops, from luminaries like Wendell Berry, James Hansen, David Orr, Amory Lovins, Sandra Steingraber, Juan Pablo Orrega and just too many more to mention. The essays are also found in the book "Energy Reader", available from the Post Carbon Institute. This Reader, Heinberg says, is already being used in some college classes.

The book "Energy: Overdevelopment and the Delusion of Endless Growth" was published with the help of the Foundation for Deep Ecology, which also spearheaded other activist large format books, including CAFO (Confined Animal Feeding Operations) and a great rainforest book.

Find the Radio Ecoshock coverage of CAFO - Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations The horrible truth about our meat production practices. Interview with Daniel Imhoff, editor of 2 new books on factory farm production. From Ecoshock 101015 Lo-Fi 4 MB 19 min

THE MEETING OF CLIMATE DISRUPTION, ENERGY DECLINE, AND ECONOMIC CRISIS or "Why the Economy Is Shrinking".

How do climate change, energy problems, and the fragile economy interact? And which will hit us worst and first? Let's hear Richard Heinberg add it all up at this keynote speech at the Great Lakes Bioneers Conference in Chicago, on November 2nd, 2012. This was recorded for Radio Ecoshock by Kelly Pierce of the Chicago Independent Media Center. The talk is titled “Life After Growth: Why the Economy Is Shrinking and What to Do About It”. We take you there. Find the links to listen to or download this speech by Richard Heinberg above.

Find Richard at richardheinberg.com. The helpful PCI news and discussion board is resilience.org.

I'm Alex Smith for Radio Ecoshock.

Thank you for listening to the big picture.